Volkswacht Bodensee - Trump-Infantino 'bromance' tested by Middle East war

Infantino and Trump have made their friendship highly public since they were both first elected in 2016.

Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 strengthened that relationship with the World Cup finals in the United States, Canada and Mexico looming on the horizon.

Infantino was invited to Trump's inauguration ceremony and has been a regular White House visitor, cultivating his "bromance" with the Republican, even joining official visits, to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

When it became clear that Trump would not win the Nobel Peace Prize, FIFA created its own Peace Prize, which Infantino presented to the President at the World Cup draw in Washington in December.

"What matters to Infantino is his own geopolitics, guided by economic benefit. Anything that runs counter to human rights or respect for international law in no way violates his strategy," said Raphael Le Magoariec, a French political scientist who specialises in sport in the Gulf.

"The problem is that the whole narrative developed in his relationship with Trump, to flatter his ego, completely contradicts the current dynamic."

When it became clear that Trump would not win the Nobel Peace Prize, FIFA created its own Peace Prize, which Infantino presented to Trump just before the World Cup draw in Washington in December.

A figure close to football's governing bodies, who spoke on condition they were not identified, described Infantino's pragmatism as "beyond ridiculous".

"But I think it's quite rational, because he wants his World Cup to go well. And he believes he needs Trump for that."

- 'Commercial success' -

This year's tournament, expanded from 32 to 48 teams, promises to be the most lucrative in history. FIFA forecasts 11 billion dollars (9.5bn euros) in revenue for the 2023–2026 cycle, much of which will be shared among its members.

"All future voters want is money. And if the World Cup is a commercial success, they'll get it," the same source said.

With a year remaining in his mandate, Infantino is not taking a wild gamble by aligning himself with Trump.

However, the extension of the Iran conflict to US allies such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which have become major players in global sport, has forced Infantino to walk a tightrope.

Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup and Qatar staged the last in 2022.

"The war undertaken by Donald Trump has not at all taken into account the interests of the Arab countries of the region engaged in a policy of influence. They are facing a nightmarish situation because it threatens their project developed over two decades," Le Magoariec said.

Yet it is hard to imagine alliances changing as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, especially since Iran carries little weight on the international sports stage.

If Iran pulled out, "from a commercial, economic and political point of view it would have little importance", said Simon Chadwick, a specialist in sports geopolitics at EM Lyon business school.

"On the other hand, eliminating an opponent would offer Donald Trump and his government the ideal ground to project the image and values they wish."

"For FIFA, it is better to preserve its relationship with Donald Trump, even if it means sacrificing Iran," Le Magoariec added.

F.Wagner--VB