Volkswacht Bodensee - Rapper-turned-politician looks set for landslide Nepal election win

The high-stakes parliamentary election on Thursday came six months after deadly anti-corruption protests toppled the government, with at least 77 people killed.

The September 2025 youth-led demonstrations, under a loose Gen Z banner, began over a brief social media ban but quickly tapped into broader grievances over corruption and a struggling economy.

According to early trends issued by the Election Commission Saturday, 35-year-old Shah's Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) was on track to win a majority in the 275-member House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament.

"Looking at the trend, the Rastriya Swatantra Party has taken the lead in many places and has won several seats," commission spokesperson Narayan Prasad Bhattarai told AFP.

If the trends are confirmed by the vote count, 35-year-od Shah's victory over a veteran Marxist leader -- and his rise from city mayor to potential prime minister -- would mark one of the most dramatic results in recent Nepali politics.

"This is heading to a landslide victory -- this reflects the frustration that has been building up," said Chandra Dev Bhatta, a political analyst.

"It is actually the people's revolt against the established political parties," he added.

"The people understand that the new do not really have strong agendas, but it is a punishment to the parties for their decades-long poor governance."

- 'A day will come' -

By Saturday morning, on the second day of counting, there were only 34 declared results -- RSP took 27, Nepali Congress won four, and the Marxist party of ousted prime minister KP Sharma Oli was trailing with one.

Former Maoist guerrilla commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal has one seat for his party.

But trends showed that Shah's RSP was also leading in 90 of the 165 constituencies in the direct elections.

It had secured comfortably more than half of votes so far counted in the proportional representation vote, which determines a further 110 seats via party lists.

Bhattarai said results from direct elections would be ready by Monday, but longer for full results to be ready.

"According to our plan, it will take at least a week to count the proportional votes, after which the election will go through the official process," he added.

He said that vote counting was "going smoothly" across the Himalayan nation, from snowbound high-altitude mountain regions to the hot plains bordering India.

On Friday, Shah's party loyalists danced on the streets of Kathmandu in celebration -- even though votes counted remain low, and final results could take days.

DP Aryal, RSP deputy chairman, issued a message urging supporters to hold back on celebrations.

"Once we work, a day will come for us to celebrate," he said in a post on social media late Friday.

Shah has also taken a commanding lead in the seat he is contesting -- a head-to-head contest against the 74-year-old ousted prime minister Oli, symbolising the clash between the old guard and a youth-driven call for change.

Better known as Balen, Shah first leveraged his music fame and strong social media following to become Kathmandu's first independent mayor in 2022.

Nepali Congress, the largest party in the past coalition government, saw its new leader Gagan Thapa trailing in his own constituency.

"This is even a bigger upset than we expected -- it underscores the level of public disenchantment with the old parties for under-performance, as well as anger over the events of September," said Kunda Dixit, publisher of the weekly Nepali Times.

In Jhapa, soldiers with armoured trucks manned barbed wire barricades around the counting centre.

Yagya Prasad Adhikari, a 49-year-old businessman who travelled from Kathmandu for the vote, said he supported the calls for calm before full results were ready.

"We want someone who works, not someone who talks," he said. "We support Balen not celebrating."

Meanwhile, the burnt-out ruins of Oli's home in Jhapa -- torched during the unrest, like hundreds of other buildings, including parliament -- serve as a reminder of the deadly violence that occurred last year.

Dharmakala Gautam, 74, who watched the house burn, said she was tired of promises by politicians that never materialised.

"When the Maoists came to rule, we hoped for change -- but not much happened," she said. "I will keep some hope this time too."

R.Buehler--VB