Volkswacht Bodensee - Bulgaria conservatives and Liberals in a close race as votes counted

Russia's invasion of its neighbour has deepened a political crisis that has engulfed the poor Balkan nation since 2020, turmoil unseen since the fall of Communism.

Sunday's results are unlikely to end the crisis in the country of 6.5 million, which is a member of the European Union and NATO but is historically and culturally close to Russia.

Projections based on early results put the conservative GERB of former premier Boyko Borisov at 24-26 percent, just slightly ahead of a coalition led by liberal Kiril Petkov at 23-24 percent.

The ultra-nationalist Vazrazhdane party, which defends the Kremlin's war, gained 13-14 percent of the vote, up from the 10 percent it won in the last ballot in October, according to the projections.

Official results are only expected during the week.

- 'No one inspires confidence' -

Krasimir Naydenov, 57, told AFP outside a polling station in Sofia on Sunday, he hoped for "the government to start functioning again".

"No one inspires confidence any more," he added.

Borisov, who ruled for about a decade, lost power in 2021 after massive anti-corruption protests rocked Bulgaria.

But that set off a record series of elections with political parties struggling to form stable coalitions, leading to a deeply fragmented parliament and a string of interim governments.

Turnout on Sunday was put at 40 percent, just slightly up from October, where it sunk to a record low of under 40 percent.

All eyes will be once again on Borisov, 63, and Petkov, 42, though analysts say it is far from certain the two could find a way for their parties to work together.

Both men support Ukraine but have a bitter history, with Petkov accusing Borisov of corruption.

"There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is a factor, as well as high inflation, in pushing Petkov and Borisov to find some form of agreement. But would it be enough?," Andrey Raychev, an analyst with Gallup International, told AFP.

"The closer the results of the first two parties, the harder it will be to form a cabinet," another analyst, Evelina Slavkova of Trend, said.

Unless Borisov withdraws, there is no end in sight to this "worrying spiral of elections", predicted Lukas Macek, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute for Central and Eastern Europe.

Earlier in the day, Borisov said he wanted to "find a solution to the crisis" of repeating elections.

"With this terrible war in Ukraine -- this partition of the world -- we must very clearly stay with the democratic world," he said.

Petkov, who was briefly premier in 2022 with his We Continue the Change (PP) party, said he voted for "a normal European life... a normal European government".

- 'Too critical of Russia' -

On the other hand, many in Bulgaria still revere Russia as the country that ended five centuries of Ottoman rule in 1878.

"Both Petkov and Borisov are too aggressively critical of Russia," said Mariana Valkova, a 62-year-old entrepreneur who worked in the Soviet Union.

"I'd rather there wasn't a government and (President Rumen) Radev remained in charge."

Pro-Russian Radev, who has appointed interim cabinets between the inconclusive elections, has denounced Petkov and his allies as "war mongers".

He also opposes sending arms to Ukraine, as does the Socialist BSP, the successor of Bulgaria's Communist Party, which looks to have won 9-10 percent of the votes cast.

At the same time, Bulgaria's munitions factories have been running at full capacity making ammunition to be exported to Kyiv via third countries.

J.Bergmann--BTB