Volkswacht Bodensee - Finns vote as far right hopes to oust PM Sanna Marin

After the breakthrough by nationalists in neighbouring Sweden and the far right's victory in Italy last year, Finland could become the latest country to join the nationalist wave in Europe.

Final results are due around midnight (2100 GMT).

The vote comes just days ahead of Finland's formal accession to the NATO defence alliance, with worries about neighbouring Russia surging with its war against Ukraine.

But Marin and her Social Democratic Party (SDP) have lost their lustre since she took office in 2019 as the world's youngest prime minister at age 34.

"The polls show that the more right-wing political trend in Finland is gaining strength," Juho Rahkonen from the E2 research institute told AFP.

The latest survey Thursday by public broadcaster Yle showed the SDP in third place with a projected 18.7 percent of the vote.

The centre-right National Coalition held a thin lead at 19.8 percent, with the nationalist and eurosceptic Finns Party in second place at 19.5 percent.

"We have had a great campaign. We have the best candidates all over Finland and we are first in the polls, so I'm optimistic," National Coalition leader Petteri Orpo told AFP at a campaign rally on Saturday.

- 'Rock star's days are over' -

Marin is Finland's most popular prime minister this century, according to polls, and has made headlines internationally for her hard line against Finland's eastern neighbour Russia.

She is a popular speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos and has been featured on the cover of Time Magazine and in Vogue.

Yet she has struggled to convert her popularity into more SDP seats in parliament.

While some view her as a strong leader who deftly navigated the Covid-19 pandemic and the NATO membership process, others see the rising public debt on her watch and backlash over video clips of her partying as signs of inexperience.

"I liked Marin... but I don't personally believe that her ideas about economic policy are something she and her government can actually achieve," 29-year-old Kasper Kylmala told AFP after casting his ballot.

Antti Piispanen, a 30 year-old salesman, put it more bluntly: "The 'rock star' Marin's time is over, she did nothing good."

Finland's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 64 percent in 2019 to 73 percent, which Orpo's National Coalition wants to address by cutting spending by six billion euros ($6.5 billion).

Yet Marin rejuvenated her greying party, with her appeal strongest among women.

"As a young woman, it's important to have someone that feels close to me," said Irja Vaateri, a 26-year-old university student who campaigned for Marin.

- Tough talks ahead -

A top spot for the Finns Party, and a far-right prime minister, would be a first in Finland.

"What seems to be clear is that we are going to have a very good result," party leader Riikka Purra said after voting in Kirkkonummi, outside Helsinki.

Her eurosceptic party, which appeals overwhelmingly to male voters, wants a hard line on immigration, alleging that recent arrivals are behind a surge in gang violence in neighbouring Sweden.

Support for the populist party has also surged since last summer with the surge in inflation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Negotiations to build a government are expected to be thorny and could last several weeks.

Marin has ruled out forming a government with what she calls the "openly racist" Finns Party, while Orpo has said he will keep his options open despite clashing with the Finns Party on immigration, the EU and climate policy.

The Finns Party sees "Fixit" -- an exit from the European Union -- as a long-term goal and wants to postpone Finland's target of carbon neutrality for 2035.

This gives Orpo a central role in forming the next government, as both the Finns Party and the SDP would probably need him to obtain a majority.

T.Bondarenko--BTB