Volkswacht Bodensee - Very strong El Niño forecast to peak during southern African summer

Southern Africa is approaching an austral summer influenced by a forecast very strong El Niño that developed earlier than usual and is expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027.

The ENSO Reference Group, comprising experts from South African research institutions and agencies, maintained the forecast in its August update. University of Pretoria modelling places the peak within the four-month period, while observations show unusually early warming in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific and record global average sea-surface temperatures.

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring tropical Pacific pattern that affects weather worldwide. The group said every event interacts differently with other oceanic and atmospheric processes, which can strengthen or reduce local effects, leaving considerable uncertainty about the consequences of the 2026 event.

A detailed assessment will be presented at the 2026-2027 El Niño summit on September 10. The group plans to examine the event’s development and expected impact, as well as extreme weather early and late in the southern African winter, a dry July in the winter-rainfall region and recent extreme summer conditions in the northern hemisphere.

F.Fehr--VB