Volkswacht Bodensee - Experts cast doubt on Burkina Faso's 'foiled coup'

If the supposed plot, which the military said was to take place on January 3, had succeeded, it would have been the chronically unstable west African country's third coup in four years.

State TV spent the next four days airing nightly "confessions" by the alleged conspirators, as the junta called it the "umpteenth time" its enemies have attempted to destabilise the country.

But some analysts remain unconvinced.

"It's the same every time: they announce they've foiled a coup d'etat, and each scenario is more unbelievable than the last," said a Burkinabe journalist and political analyst.

But "there have been zero trials, zero convictions," he added, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, in a country where those critical of the junta risk its repressive wrath.

"This time, they're saying it was a discount coup, financed for just 70 million CFA francs ($120,000)... Previously, they've talked about financing of more than five billion."

It would not be the first time the junta has resorted to peculiar means of self-promotion.

Last year, their supporters spread videos that had gone viral on social media of world-famous figures -- the pope, Beyonce, Justin Bieber, disgraced R&B star R. Kelly -- praising Traore as a fantastic leader.

It turned out the videos had been generated by artificial intelligence.

- The plot -

According to the junta, the mastermind behind the alleged assassination plot was former lieutenant-colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who is in exile in Togo.

Damiba ousted president Roch Marc Christian Kabore in a January 2022 coup, but was himself deposed eight months later in the coup that brought Traore to power.

Burkina Faso's security minister said Damiba and his co-conspirators had planned a series of "targeted assassinations" of civilian and military authorities on January 3, "starting with the neutralisation of comrade Ibrahim Traore".

He accused neighbouring Ivory Coast, which has strained relations with Burkina Faso's military government, of financing the plot.

A series of alleged conspirators were paraded before state television's cameras to make "confessions".

Alleged "key player" Mady Sakande, presented as a businessman, said he had travelled to Ivory Coast to collect the money for the plan.

Army Captain Prosper Couldiati said he had been assigned to decapitate the commander of the Sapone drone base outside the capital, Ouagadougou, to prevent an aerial response.

And Sergeant First Class Salfo Yalweogo of the Republican Guard said Damiba had contacted him to "mobilise men" for a coup.

- 'Crying wolf' -

The junta has repeatedly pointed the finger at Ivory Coast, which has denied the accusations.

"We have a foiled plot around every four to six months," said another Burkinabe analyst.

"Each time, it's an occasion for mobilising and revitalising support for the head of state. But be careful: cry wolf too many times, and people end up not believing you."

The effect may be wearing thin in Burkina Faso, which has other problems, including a long-running jihadist insurgency.

"When this destabilisation attempt was announced, support for the junta rallied. But not with the same fervour as before," said one Ouagadougou resident.

Nina Wilen, head of the Africa programme at the Brussels-based Egmont research institute, called the junta's latest coup allegation "very improbable".

"Disinformation is omnipresent in Burkina Faso, and Captain Traore's team is particularly good at spreading rumours and fake news," she said.

O.Schlaepfer--VB