Volkswacht Bodensee - Venezuela's Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize - and dedicates it to Trump

Machado, the democracy activist who challenged President Nicolas Maduro in last year's elections, has become a "unifying" figure in Venezuela, the prize jury said. She has refused to leave despite threats against her life.

Her dedication of the prize to Trump, who has long coveted the award, came against the backdrop of increased pressure from Washington on Maduro's government.

"More than ever we count on President Trump," Machado wrote on X, citing his "decisive support of our cause".

The 58-year-old told Nobel Institute director Kristian Berg Harpviken in a call that she was confident the opposition would secure a peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela.

"I'm sure that we will prevail," she said in the call, which was filmed and posted to X.

Machado, in hiding for the past year, is "one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent times", said Nobel Committee chair Jorgen Watne Frydnes.

"Despite serious threats against her life, she has remained in the country, a choice that has inspired millions."

Rumours have circulated on social networks that she is sheltering at the US embassy.

Venezuelan opposition figurehead Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who lives in exile in Spain, hailed her win as "a well-deserved recognition of the long struggle of a woman and an entire people for freedom and democracy".

- Prize leaks probe -

Machado had not been mentioned by any expert of media outlet as a favourite to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Yet, hours before it was awarded, the odds of her getting the award soared from 3.75 percent on Thursday to nearly 73 percent on Friday on the predictive betting platform Polymarket -- triggering an investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute.

Institute director Harpviken told the Aftenposten daily: "It's too early to be categorical about the existence of a leak. But it's something we will now look into."

An extremely limited number of people know in advance the name of the laureate chosen by the five members of the Nobel Committee.

Machado was the opposition's presidential candidate for Venezuela's 2024 elections, but Maduro's government blocked her candidacy.

She then backed the reluctant, little-known ex-diplomat Gonzalez Urrutia as her stand-in, accompanying him on rallies where she was welcomed like a rock star.

Maduro claimed electoral victory, but numerous officials abroad have recognised Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela's president-elect.

An engineer by training, Caracas-born Machado entered politics in 2002 at the head of the association Sumate (Join us), pushing for a referendum to recall Maduro's mentor, the late socialist leader Hugo Chavez.

The call led to treason accusations and death threats, prompting her to send her three children to live abroad.

Machado's daughter Ana Corina Sosa, who initially thought a slew of missed calls on her phone in New York meant her mother had been arrested, called the award recompense for "many years of sacrifice for my family, for Venezuelans, for my mom".

The committee said it was aware Machado might not be able to attend the Oslo ceremony on December 10.

"We always hope to have the laureate with us in Oslo, but this is a serious security situation which needs to be handled first," Frydnes told reporters.

Washington accuses Maduro of leading a drug cartel, and does not recognise him as the country's legitimate leader.

The United States has in recent weeks carried out strikes off Venezuelan shores in international waters, claiming to act against drug smugglers.

Machado and Gonzalez Urrutia have backed US military pressure on the regime as a "necessary measure" towards the "restoration of popular sovereignty".

- Trump's hopes for prize -

Once relatively democratic and prosperous, Venezuela is now a "brutal authoritarian state that is now suffering a humanitarian and economic crisis", Frydnes said.

Systematic suppression of the opposition has included "election rigging, legal prosecution and imprisonment".

Machado has been a "key, unifying figure in a political opposition that was once deeply divided", he said.

Since returning to the White House for his second term in January, Trump has repeatedly insisted that he "deserves" the Nobel for his role in resolving numerous conflicts -- a claim observers say is broadly exaggerated.

"President Trump will continue making peace deals, ending wars, and saving lives," White House Director of Communications Steven Cheung said on X.

The committee had made its choice days before the recent announcement of a US-backed deal to end the fighting in Gaza.

Regardless, Nobel experts had insisted Trump had no chance, noting that his "America First" policies run counter to the ideals of the Peace Prize as laid out by its founder Alfred Nobel.

P.Keller--VB