Volkswacht Bodensee - India's Modi eyes important win in opposition-held West Bengal

Votes were being counted under tight security in the state of 100 million people, one of five states and territories that held elections in April and May where results were also due on Monday.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party in the national parliament, is seeking to make inroads into opposition-held states.

Veteran politician MK Stalin was trailing in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, where he was challenged by a political debutant -- film star C. Joseph Vijay.

Modi's BJP waged an aggressive campaign in West Bengal to dislodge Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand leader of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) who has been in power since 2011.

Trends released by the Election Commission of India on Monday showed the BJP leading in 193 out of 294 seats in West Bengal.

"The entire country has its eyes on this state's election results," political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty told AFP in the state capital Kolkata. "The contest can tilt the balance of power."

Scuffles broke out outside several counting centres in West Bengal, and police used batons to control the crowd. Past elections have resulted in violence.

The campaign this time was marked by protests over the removal of millions of names from voter rolls, billed as removing ineligible voters but which critics said was skewed against marginalised and minority communities.

Banerjee urged calm in a video released on Monday.

"They are trying to manipulate the election," she said. "I want to request TMC candidates to not be disappointed. I had told you, that you all will win after sunset. Just wait and watch."

However, West Bengal's BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya told AFP he was confident of winning. If confirmed, it will be the first time the BJP has held power in West Bengal.

"It was an election of rejection," Bhattacharya said. "People of the state want change."

- 'Political earthquake' -

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) under Chief Minister Stalin was trailing in Tamil Nadu, a key industrial hub with more than 80 million people, according to early Election Commission trends.

Stalin's challenger Vijay, 51, is one of India's most bankable actors, especially in Tamil regions.

Vijay, who launched his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party in 2024, was leading in 101 of 234 seats, with one decided in its favour, according to the Election Commission.

The trends indicated a surprise result for Vijay's TVK in a state where most exit polls suggested Stalin's DMK would return to power.

The BJP is also poised to return to power in Assam, a northeastern state of more than 31 million, and in the small coastal territory of Puducherry, where the BJP is part of a ruling coalition.

Trends in a tightly contested race in Kerala suggested the Congress party-led alliance will oust the Communist party in the southern state of approximately 36 million.

"It looks like we may get over 100 out of 140 seats, which would be a comprehensive win," senior Congress party member Shashi Tharoor told the Press Trust of India news agency.

"It would be a historic moment -- for the first time in recent democratic history, there would be no Communist government in power in any state," he said.

Omar Abdullah, chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, said a win for the BJP in West Bengal and the TVK in Tamil Nadu would be nothing short of a "political earthquake".

"The aftershocks of these results will be felt far and wide for a long time," he said on social media, "probably all the way" to general elections in 2029.

S.Spengler--VB