Volkswacht Bodensee - China, Beijing's ties with Russia main threats to US: intel report

China's rise in all areas of power has been identified for years by the US as its main threat, and was behind Barack Obama's strategic Asia-Pacific pivot.

But Beijing's "coercive pressure" against Taiwan and "wide-ranging cyber operations against US targets" were indicators of its growing threat to US national security, said the Annual Threat Assessment by the intelligence community.

"China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to US national security," the report said.

Beijing was also making "steady" progress towards having the ability to seize the self-ruled island of Taiwan, it said.

The report, which compiles assessments from US intelligence agencies, warned that Beijing would keep expanding its "coercive and subversive malign influence activities" to weaken the US internally and globally.

And the Chinese government would seek to counter what it sees as a "US-led campaign to tarnish Beijing's global relations and overthrow" the Chinese Communist Party, the report said.

Beijing's military is gearing up to challenge US operations in the Pacific and "making steady but uneven progress on capabilities it would use in an attempt to seize Taiwan," it assessed.

But, it said, the Chinese leadership would seek to reduce tensions with the United States as it seeks to "protect its core interests, and buy time to strengthen its position."

China was more "cautious" than Russia, Iran and North Korea -- other key US adversaries -- about appearing "too aggressive and disruptive."

The report said that the autocratic style of President Xi Jinping -- China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong -- was affecting its ability to respond to challenges.

"Xi's focus on security and stability... and securing other leaders' personal loyalty to him is undermining China's ability to solve complex domestic problems and will impede Beijing's global leverage," the report found.

Beijing called the report "biased" and accused it of "exaggerating the China threat."

"The US publishes these kinds of irresponsible and biased reports year after year," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a regular press briefing.

"We have no intention of surpassing anyone or replacing anyone," he said Wednesday.

US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate hearing Tuesday that "China is our most capable strategic competitor" based on current intelligence.

- Ukraine lessons -

In addition to China, the assessment analyzed threats to the United States posed by Russia, North Korea, Iran and "non-state transnational criminals," including Mexican drug cartels and Muslim extremist groups.

It warned countries grouped together under the acronym CRINK -- China, Russia, Iran and North Korea -- were stepping up cooperation and could pose new challenges to US power on a global scale.

"This alignment increases the chances of US tensions or conflict with any one of these adversaries drawing in another," it said.

But it called their cooperation "uneven and primarily motivated by a common interest in... weakening US power," moderated by a "desire to control escalation."

Within that group, cooperation between China and Russia posed the greatest and "most persistent" threat to the US.

The allies have drawn closer since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and subsequent Western attempts to isolate Moscow.

The war and Western sanctions have made Moscow "a catalyst for the evolving ties," the report said, as it becomes more reliant on other countries.

It has stepped up cooperation with Iran to acquire drones and North Korea for supplies and troops, all to be used in Ukraine.

The conflict has afforded Moscow an array of lessons in battling Western weapons and intelligence.

"This experience probably will challenge future US defense planning, including against other adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing those lessons learned," the report concluded.

F.Stadler--VB