Volkswacht Bodensee - Asian stocks rise on trade optimism, but US policy uncertainty lingers

With the White House's "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaching, investors have been bracing for a wave of sweeping levies on imports amid warnings of crippled global trade, recession and a fresh spike in inflation.

But suggestions from Trump and others in Washington that the measures could be more targeted, with some countries hit harder than others, have provided a sliver of hope that the worst-case scenario can be avoided.

The president told Newsmax that "I don’t want to have too many exceptions" but added: "I'll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people".

Signs of a less severe approach helped Wall Street record two successive days of gains, paring hefty losses suffered in recent weeks fuelled by fears that the hardball US policies would hit companies' bottom lines.

And after a mixed day Monday, Asia followed suit.

Hong Kong pushed higher a day after tanking more than two percent on profit-taking and selling in the tech sector, while Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore and Wellington also advanced.

Jakarta jumped almost three percent after a hefty sell-off this year fuelled by worries over the Indonesian economy. However, the country's rupiah remained stuck around its lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis at the end of the last century.

Taipei and Manila edged down.

But while there is some hope over tariffs, Americans' fears about the economic outlook indicated the United States could be in for a bumpy ride.

The Conference Board's closely watched gauge of consumer confidence dived to its lowest level since 2021 -- during the pandemic -- as concerns grow over higher prices.

Meanwhile, another reading on expectations for the next six months hit a 12-year low.

The figures come as the Federal Reserve re-evaluates its monetary policy in light of Trump's tariffs agenda, with some analysts warning it might have to hold off any interest rate cuts this year.

At the end of a volatile first quarter, Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said it had "challenged conventional thinking".

"While rate cut hopes dominated headlines early in the year, markets moved on quickly as economic resilience, sector rotation, geopolitical shifts, and regional divergences took centre stage," she wrote in a commentary.

"Trade policy returned to focus as the US election narrative picked up. Even without concrete tariffs, the potential for disruption hit sentiment across global sectors."

There was little major reaction to news that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy sites following talks brokered by Washington.

The Kremlin said the deal could come into force only after the lifting of restrictions on its agriculture sector.

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 37,890.15 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 23,391.53

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,371.91

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0794 from $1.0791 on Tuesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2944 from $1.2943

Dollar/yen: UP at 150.14 yen from 149.90 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 83.40 pence from 83.37 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.4 percent at $69.25 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $73.24 per barrel

New York - Dow: FLAT at 42,587.50 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,663.80 (close)

F.Fehr--VB