Volkswacht Bodensee - Canada Liberals vote to replace Trudeau as PM

Trudeau, who became Liberal leader in 2013 before taking over as prime minister two years later, announced in early January that he planned to resign, overcome by dismal polling numbers and internal party dissent.

Before Christmas, the opposition Conservatives looked certain to win a general election that must be held by October but could be called within weeks.

Trade chaos with the United States and Trump's repeated musing about annexing Canada have upended the political climate and surveys show the Liberals gaining ground.

"The context is completely unprecedented. Right now the only thing that matters to Canadians is 'who is the right person to take on Donald Trump?'" Frederic Boily of the University of Alberta told AFP.

Four candidates qualified to run in the Liberal leadership race but only two are seen as viable contenders.

The front-runner is Mark Carney, who led the Bank of Canada before becoming the first non-Briton to serve as governor of the Bank of England.

His main challenger is Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau's former finance minister who dramatically broke with the prime minister in December, issuing a scathing resignation letter that partly pushed him to resign.

Both Carney and Freeland have anchored their campaigns on the Trump threat.

Carney, who has never held elected office, has sought to remind Liberal party voters that he led Canada's central bank through the 2008-2009 financial crisis and steered the Bank of England through the turbulence that followed the Brexit vote.

"Canada faces one of the most serious crises in our history. I know how to manage crises and I know how to build strong economies," he said during a leadership debate.

Freeland has warned that Trump "is posing the gravest challenge our country has faced since the Second World War," and highlighted her experience negotiating directly with Trump's first administration.

- Transfer of power -

The winner of the Liberal leadership race will be announced in Ottawa on Sunday.

The party says that 400,000 people have signed up to vote and boasted of unprecedented fundraising in recent weeks.

Trudeau declined this week to give a precise date for when he would hand over power, telling reporters he would work out transition timelines with the new Liberal leader.

When ready, Trudeau and his successor will visit Governor General Mary Simon -- King Charles III's official representative in Canada -- who will task the new Liberal chief with forming a government.

The date Canadians will head to the polls for a general election remains unclear.

- 'Unique crisis'? -

Most polls, and betting markets, still put the Conservatives as the favourites to win the next election.

But the Liberals have tried to portray Tory leader Pierre Poilievre as a Trump-like figure, citing his right-wing populist style and record of bashing favourite Trump targets with inflammatory rhetoric, including government and the media.

Experts say the Liberals may be wise to call snap elections with the Trump threat front of mind, including a trade war that Trudeau says the president launched to collapse the Canadian economy to make annexation "easier."

Carney, 59, is attractive because of his "economic experience and his seriousness," said Stephanie Chouinard, a political scientist at Canada's Royal Military College.

"He knows the global financial system and he knows the strengths and weaknesses of the Canadian economy," she added.

Surveys indicate the election will be unlike any in recent Canadian history, with historically dominant domestic issues like health care and housing costs surpassed by Trump.

"This is a unique crisis, and we do not know its scope or its duration. Today, a third of Canadians see the United States as an enemy country. It is historic and creates considerable upheaval in the way Canadians think," said pollster Jean-Marc Leger.

T.Suter--VB