Volkswacht Bodensee - Stubb, Haavisto through to Finland's presidential run-off vote

With all votes counted, conservative former prime minister Alexander Stubb won 27.2 percent of votes, while ex-foreign minister Pekka Haavisto of the Green Party, running as an independent, secured 25.8 percent, said election officials.

Voter turnout was 71.5 percent.

They will meet in the runoff election on February 11.

"No matter who I'd face in the second round, I know we'll have a constructive, civilised and good discussion about difficult foreign policy questions," Stubb had told public broadcaster Yle earlier.

While the president's powers are limited, the head of state -- who also acts as supreme commander of Finland's armed forces -- helps direct foreign policy in collaboration with the government. That means that the changing geopolitical landscape in Europe will be the main concern for the winner.

"Experience in foreign policy could be what people were looking for, looking at the two who will go to the next round," Hanna Ojanen, research director of politics at Tampere University, told AFP as the results became clear.

Heading into the vote, experts had thought far-right Finns Party candidate Jussi Halla-aho might make it to the second round. In the end, he came third with 19 percent of the vote.

Voter Hannu Kuusitie told AFP the country needed a president with "leadership" and "humanity".

"Of course, he must also be tough when necessary," he added.

Relations between Moscow and Helsinki deteriorated following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, prompting Finland to drop decades of military non-alignment and join NATO in April 2023.

Russia, with which Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border, swiftly warned of "countermeasures".

- Humans as weapons -

By August 2023, Finland observed an influx of migrants entering through its eastern border without visas.

Helsinki claimed Moscow was pushing the migrants in a hybrid attack to destabilise it, and Finland closed the eastern border in November.

"We are in a situation now where Russia and especially Vladimir Putin is using humans as a weapon," Stubb said on Thursday evening during a final televised debate.

"It's a migrant issue, it's a ruthless, cynical measure. And in that case we have to put Finland's security first," he added.

Haavisto stressed that Finland had to "send Russia a very clear message that this can't go on".

In the post-Cold War period, Helsinki maintained good relations with Moscow.

Incumbent President Sauli Niinisto -- who is stepping down after serving two six-year terms -- once prided himself on his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin before becoming one of his most trenchant critics.

Against this backdrop, the presidential candidates are championing both Finland's independence and its new role as a NATO member, said Hanna Wass, vice dean at the Faculty of Social Science at the University of Helsinki.

"They all seem to have a strong idea emphasising self-sufficiency," Wass told AFP. Both candidates believed Finland should "also be an active contributor in building a shared European defence and Nordic cooperation", she added.

With such similar stances, the election will focus more on the candidates' personalities, according to Tuomas Forsberg, professor of foreign policy at the University of Tampere.

"This will be more about electing an individual, where you look at the person's credibility and reliability and perceived qualities as a leader of foreign policy," Forsberg said.

- Experienced realists -

Stubb was prime minister of Finland between 2014 and 2015, while Haavisto has held several ministerial posts.

"They are two very experienced and realistic politicians who know what they are talking about," Ojanen said.

"It will be interesting to see how the discussions will be held to bring out difference between the two," she added.

While sharing similar political views, Haavisto and Stubb represent different backgrounds, Forsberg noted.

"Alex is more a representative of the right and Haavisto of the left, even if... he has taken the middle road as a Green," Forsberg said.

In the second round of voting, the election debates could be decisive, he added.

"The differences will become clear as the campaign progresses," Haavisto told Yle Sunday evening.

B.Wyler--VB