Volkswacht Bodensee - India's Modi readies bellwether poll in poorest state

That's what Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to capitalise on, wooing voters with economic incentives in a bid to win full control.

A win here, strategists say, could "energise" the BJP's prospects in other key states heading into next year's elections.

Hindu-majority Bihar, the country's third most populous state -- roughly equal to Mexico -- is a bellwether battleground.

It remains the only state in the Hindi-speaking north where Modi's Hindu nationalist party has never ruled alone.

For housewife Rajkumari Devi, feeding her three children depends on the daily wage her husband earns as a labourer in the Muzaffarpur district.

He takes home about 400 to 500 rupees (around $5) on the days he does find work.

"There is no stability," said the 28-year-old, outside her modest one-room home overlooking agricultural land.

"There have been times when he has not had work for days -- so we stretch the little money we have," she added. "There is unemployment everywhere."

Bihar ranks worst in India on poverty indicators, according to the government's NITI Aayog policy think tank, with a GDP per capita of 52,379 rupees, just ahead of a country like the Central African Republic.

- Cash promises -

But it has made progress over the past decade.

The share of citizens living in "multidimensional poverty" -- deprived in health, education and living standards -- fell from just over a half in 2016, to about a third in 2021, according to the latest data released last year.

In September, Modi announced investment projects worth $8 billion, including rail and road upgrades, new agricultural schemes and an airport terminal.

He also unveiled an $844 million initiative to support women entrepreneurs, offering 7.5 million women cash transfers of 10,000 rupees each.

The BJP, allied with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), faces a stiff challenge from the opposition.

At a rally in the state capital Patna on Sunday, Modi urged voters to "bless the NDA".

A BJP victory in Bihar could, analysts say, boost its momentum in opposition-held states, such as neighbouring West Bengal, as well as Tamil Nadu in the south.

"This is the election which will decide whether the BJP can form a government on its own," said Pushpendra, a political analyst who uses only one name.

A BJP win could "energise" the party elsewhere, he said.

The election will be held in two phases, on November 6 and 11. Results are due on November 14.

- 'Jobless people' -

The BJP's main rival is an opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party.

"Time to build new Bihar," RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav said last week, promising one government job per family, after touching down in a helicopter in Darbhanga district, where narrow lanes wind between mud and thatch-roof homes.

Former BJP poll strategist Prashant Kishor has launched a party, Jan Suraaj, or "People's Good Governance".

Supporters draped him in marigold garlands as he paraded through the crowd.

"You only run or walk after a fall," said supporter Mudassir, a 25-year-old student who goes by one name. "It's alright if he doesn't win big this time."

Pushpendra said that the result will hinge on which party voters believe will help their future, noting that to be "Bihari" has become a byword for "jobless people".

Vikash Kumar, 30, left Bihar a decade ago seeking work in other states, but still struggles to earn a steady income.

"If companies could be established here, people here wouldn't die of hunger," the labourer said.

"They will earn money, sit at home, live comfortably, and eat their meals."

F.Mueller--VB