Volkswacht Bodensee - French PM warns against snap polls to end political crisis

Bayrou's surprise gambit to hold the confidence vote on September 8 has raised fears that France risks entering a period of prolonged political and financial instability.

Should Bayrou lose the vote -- called after months of squabbling over a budget that aims to slash spending -- he must resign along with his entire government.

President Emmanuel Macron could reappoint him, or select a new figure who would be the head of state's seventh premier since taking office in 2017 or call early elections to break that political deadlock that has now dogged France for over a year.

Bayrou's move has also raised questions for Macron, who has less than two years to serve of his mandate, with the hard left calling on the president to resign -- something he has always rejected.

Bayrou told TF1 television in an interview that he "did not believe" dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap elections "would allow us to have stability".

Bayrou is due to host heads of political parties from Monday for last-ditch talks over the budget, which foresees some 43.8 billion euros ($51 billion) of cost-savings rejected by the opposition.

Bayrou told TF1 he is ready to "open all necessary negotiations" with the opposition on the budget, but "the prerequisite is that we agree on the importance of the effort" on the savings to be made.

"The economic situation is worsening every year in an intolerable way," said Bayrou, warning that the young will be the victims "if we create chaos".

"There are 12 days left (to the confidence vote), and 12 days is a very, very long time to talk," he said. "And if we agree on the seriousness, on the urgency of things, then we open negotiations."

- 'Full support' -

With both the far-right and left-wing parties vowing not to back the government, analysts say that Bayrou has mathematically little chance of surviving without a major political turnaround.

The prime minister fumed against the left and far-right, usually sworn enemies, for teaming up in an alliance "which says 'we are going to topple the government'".

Bayrou acknowledged, though, that he was himself not optimistic about winning the vote, saying: "Today, on the face of it, we cannot obtain this confidence (from parliament), but we know that there has not been a majority for a long time."

Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister and strong centrist contender for the 2027 presidential election, backed Bayrou but said a new dissolution of the lower house could be inevitable in the event of a persistent deadlock.

"If nothing happens, if no government can prepare a budget, how can this issue be resolved? Through dissolution," he told AFP.

The last such elections, in mid-2024, resulted with pro-Macron forces a minority in a parliament where the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen is the single largest party.

Macron on Wednesday gave his "full support" to Bayrou, according to government spokeswoman Sophie Primas.

- 'Fight like a dog' -

Bayrou, 74, a veteran centrist appointed by Macron in December last year, had on Tuesday vowed to "fight like a dog" to keep his job.

But some members of Macron's camp now believe calling new elections might be the only solution.

"No one wants it, but it is inevitable," a senior member of the presidential team told AFP on condition of anonymity.

A broad anti-government campaign dubbed "Bloquons tout" ("Let's block everything") and backed by the left has urged the French to stage a nationwide shutdown on September 10.

T.Suter--VB