Volkswacht Bodensee - ECB expected to hold rates as Trump tariff uncertainty lingers

The 26 members of the ECB's governing council will meet just over a week before an August 1 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of his government's punitive tariffs.

Trump has threatened to triple a basic tariff on imports from the EU to 30 percent if Brussels does not cut a deal by the end of the month, casting uncertainty over the future of transatlantic trade.

But the ECB was expected to hold tight on rates instead of preempting the outcome of negotiations, pausing a series of cuts that goes back to September.

The central bank has reduced its benchmark rate a total of eight times since June last year and at each of its last seven meetings, bringing it down to two percent.

The rapid reduction in rates has come as eurozone inflation has fallen back towards the ECB's two-percent target from the double-digit highs seen in 2022.

In June, eurozone inflation sat exactly on the ECB's target and was forecast by officials at the central bank to even out at two percent for the year.

- 'More clarity' -

The ECB would "almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged" at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, analysts from Italian bank UniCredit said in a note.

"The central bank will now want to have more clarity on the trade outlook before it considers adjusting its policy further," they said.

Despite the murky outlook, the ECB was in a "good place" to deal with what comes next, executive board member Isabel Schnabel told financial news service Econostream Media this month.

And with the euro area economy showing some signs of life despite Trump's threats on tariffs, "the bar for another rate cut is very high", she said.

Euro area factory output has grown four months in a row and the bloc's manufacturing PMI -- a survey-based measure of manufacturer's overall health -- rose in June to its highest level since August 2022.

The improving picture painted by recent indicators could, however, be shattered were Trump to follow through with additional tariffs on top of steep existing levies on auto manufacturers, steel and aluminium.

- Euro strength -

The sabre-rattling from the Oval Office over trade -- and Trump's repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's independence -- have otherwise had the impact of weakening the dollar against the euro.

Were the euro to rise much further it would make matters "much more complicated", ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg TV this month.

A stronger single currency brought with it the risk of undershooting the ECB's inflation target by making imports cheaper and cooling the economy, while making European exports more expensive.

Already, the ECB's forecasts published last month predict inflation to fall to 1.6 percent in 2026, before recovering to two percent the following year.

A strong euro meant rate cuts later in the year were a matter of "when and by how much and not if", ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said.

The question would get "more attention" at forthcoming ECB gatherings, Brzeski said, but the uncertainty over US tariffs argued in favour a "wait-and-see approach".

Trump had upped the threatened level of tariffs on EU exports to the United States since the ECB's last meeting but where they would land after August 1 was uncertain.

With the EU locked in talks with Washington to avoid higher tariffs, the necessary "clarity is unlikely to emerge by next Thursday", UniCredit analysts said.

A pause was likely before another cut later in the year, perhaps already in September, the first meeting after the summer, they said.

T.Ziegler--VB