Volkswacht Bodensee - Denmark votes in close election, outgoing PM tipped to win

Frederiksen, a Social Democrat who has been in office since 2019, has been praised for her leadership after fending off Trump's repeated demands to annex Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory he claims the United States needs for national security reasons.

The row over the vast Arctic island has however not been central in the campaign, which has focused more on such issues as the cost of living, immigration and the environment.

Recent opinion polls credit the left-wing bloc with a slight lead over the right, but neither were seen garnering a majority in the 179-seat parliament.

"The future composition of the (coalition) government is very uncertain, but it is likely that we will end up with (Frederiksen) as head of government," said Elisabet Svane, political analyst at Danish newspaper Politiken.

"People may not really like her, but they see her as the right leader," she told AFP.

Frederiksen "is a unifying figure in a world full of insecurity, and Danes are quite anxious -- there's Greenland, Ukraine, (and mystery) drones" that flew over the Scandinavian country last year, Svane said.

In addition, "it's hard to imagine a right-wing government because it would have to unite such a broad swath, from the far right to the more centrist parties, which are not on very good terms with the far right," said Ole Waever, a political science professor at the University of Copenhagen.

Polling stations open at 8:00 am (0700 GMT) and close at 8:00 pm, when exit polls will be published, with final results expected around four hours later.

The four overseas seats held by Denmark's two autonomous territories -- two for Greenland and two for the Faroe Islands -- could tip the balance if the election result is very close.

The centrist Moderate party, led by Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, a two-time former prime minister, could also prove decisive if things go down to the wire.

- Interest in Greenland -

In Greenland's capital Nuuk, the campaign has generated more interest than usual, with more than 20 candidates standing.

"I think this election will kind of show us the direction going forward," said Juno Berthelsen, a member of Greenland's local parliament and leader of the Naleraq party, which wants to cut ties with Denmark as soon as possible.

Several of the party's members have met with the Trump administration.

Greenland's main political parties all want independence from Denmark, but Naleraq's rivals favour a more measured process.

Greenland's Business Minister Naaja Nathanielsen, a candidate for the left-wing IA party, said fear of the United States had been central to the campaign in Greenland.

"Due to the fact that the US has shown such aggression, you would find a bigger interest in really trying to push the Greenlandic narrative in the Danish parliament," she said.

- 'No place here' -

In metropolitan Denmark, Greenland did not get much attention in the campaign.

"Greenland is part of Denmark and we need to take care of it, but it's not something I think about when I go to vote," 21-year-old voter Clemens Duval Thomsen told AFP.

In the wealthy nation of six million people, the campaign has instead focused on domestic issues, including inflation, the welfare state and high nitrate levels in water from agriculture.

In a country where the far right has heavily influenced policy since the late 1990s, immigration has also been a hot topic, with the Social Democrats advocating even tighter regulations.

The far-right Danish People's Party, which slumped in the 2022 election but has seen an upswing in opinion polls, is meanwhile in favour of ending permanent residence permits.

Frederiksen has also defended as "fair" a proposal to deny non-essential health care to people of foreign origin who threaten medical personnel.

"It has to be this way: in addition to the formal punishment in the judicial system, we're saying, 'You have no place here'," she said.

H.Gerber--VB