Volkswacht Bodensee - Centre-left beats far-right to Portugal's presidency: exit polls

Socialist candidate Seguro had won between 67 and 73 percent of the vote to Ventura's tally of between 27 and 33 percent according to projections from two national television stations based on exit polls.

That means the 63-year-old will, as expected, succeed the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as president.

The election campaign had been upended by two weeks of storms and fierce gales that killed at least seven people and caused an estimated four billion euros ($4.7 billion) in damage.

The storm disruption forced around 20 of the worst-hit constituencies to postpone the vote by a week, but it went ahead for nearly all the 11 million eligible voters in Portugal and abroad.

The 43-year-old Ventura -- who had trailed Seguro in opinion polls -- had argued that the government's response to the fierce gales and floods had been "useless" and had called for the entire election to be postponed.

The authorities rejected that demand.

Seguro, during his last campaign rally on Friday, accused Ventura of "doing everything to keep the Portuguese from turning out to vote".

- Storm-hit campaign -

Seguro is a veteran political operator and former Socialist party leader.

Despite being out of the public eye for the past decade, one opinion poll on Wednesday already credited him with 67 percent of voting intentions in the run-off election -- a figure reflected in Sunday's exit polls.

His camp had nevertheless been concerned that the recent foul weather and complacency among his supporters might hurt them.

Earlier Sunday, casting his vote in Caldas de Rainha, where he lives, Seguro said: "Come and vote. Make the most of this window of good weather."

His rival retorted that it showed "lack of respect to send people out to vote after what has happened".

Casting her ballot in Lisbon, retired teacher Celeste Caldeira told AFP she thought the authorities had "made the right choice to go ahead with the election".

"We have two candidates. Either we vote for the one who has everyone's interests at heart or I don't know where we're going," the 87-year-old said.

Ventura campaigned on a promise to break with the parties that have governed Portugal for the past 50 years.

Seguro positioned himself as a unifying candidate and warned of the "nightmare" the country could face if his opponent wins.

- Far right rising -

Seguro led the first round of the election in January, in which 11 candidates were standing, with 31.1 percent of the vote, ahead of Ventura on 23.5 percent. Since neither had a majority, the top two went on to a second round of voting.

Seguro secured the support of many political figures from the far left, centre and the right.

But Prime Minister Luis Montenegro -- whose minority centre-right government has to rely on support from either the Socialists or the far right to get legislation through parliament -- declined to endorse either candidate in the second round.

Voting in Lisbon on Sunday, 20-year-old medical student Julia Rodrigues said she did not know who to vote for.

"It's a really difficult choice because I don't like either candidate," she told AFP.

Ventura is the first extreme-right candidate to make it through to a run-off vote in Portugal.

His Chega (Enough) party, created as recently as 2019, became the leading opposition force at the May 2025 general election.

Analysts said that, while Ventura was expected to lose Sunday's vote, he would turn the election to his political advantage.

He is seeking to "assert himself as the true leader of the Portuguese right", political science professor Jose Santana Pereira told AFP.

In Portugal, the head of state has the power to dissolve parliament and call early elections but otherwise has a largely symbolic role.

The new president will succeed outgoing conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in early March.

S.Spengler--VB