Volkswacht Bodensee - 'Really stuck': Ukraine's EU accession drive stumbles

The process for joining the European Union is long, complex and requires unanimous approval from all member states at dozens of different stages.

Now, as US President Donald Trump has upended the West's support for Kyiv by reaching out to Moscow, Orban seems to be putting his foot down.

Since it lodged its application, war-torn Ukraine has surprised many by making fast progress and formally launching its membership negotiations in June 2024.

Orban, a nationalist who is Moscow's closest friend in the bloc, has never hidden his hostility to Ukraine's bid to join, throwing up a series of objections and obstacles.

But so far there has always been a way to talk him down -- with Orban even leaving the room in a diplomatic sleight of hand in December 2023 to allow fellow leaders to agree the opening of talks.

One year out from fraught elections at home and with his ally Trump in the White House, Orban now seems to be toughening his stance.

"Ukraine cannot win this war. And membership of the European Union cannot be an instrument of war," he said recently.

Next week, Orban's government plans to send out ballots inviting Hungarians to vote for or against Ukraine's EU membership.

The consultative vote carries no legal weight but it is similar to others he has used to legitimise his eurosceptic positions.

- 'Standstill' -

All this is fuelling fears in Brussels that the veteran of EU horse-trading may not be willing to budge this time round.

But Ukraine still has strong backing from much of the bloc.

Under the stewardship of Poland, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, officials say they are still negotiating to make progress in the coming months.

But to little avail, so far.

"We're at a standstill," one European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, told AFP.

"We're really stuck," added a second diplomat, describing Hungary's stance as "political blackmail" dictated by "the apparatchiks in Moscow".

Ukraine, which has already seen Trump essentially close the door on its bid to join NATO, insists it still hopes Budapest can be brought around.

"We are continuing this active work, and believe me, it is really intensive behind the scenes," said Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Georgiy Tykhy.

"We do not bring most of it out into the open, because some processes require so-called quiet diplomacy."

- 'High speed' -

The doggedness from Kyiv is echoed by the EU's enlargement commissioner Marta Kos, who is in charge of the dossier in Brussels.

When Kos took office last December, officials said they wanted to open the first "cluster" of negotiation topics with Ukraine in April.

"I think that the accession process with Ukraine is at high speed," Kos said in a recent interview, adding that getting Ukraine fully into the EU by 2030 remained a "realistic perspective".

Lukas Macek, a specialist on EU enlargement at the Jacques Delors think tank, estimates that a more likely timeframe for joining is usually "15 to 20 years".

A string of candidate countries in the Balkans have already been treading water for years without much progress.

But Ukraine -- as it has showed already -- may be able to exceed expectations again.

"There is an unprecedented context, with a state that is a candidate while it is at open war," Macek said.

"All of this makes the situation much more complex." And highly unpredictable.

L.Meier--VB