Volkswacht Bodensee - Trump voters see only two outcomes: 'landslide' or 'fraud'

"I really wouldn't believe it if they told me she won," Brandon Dent, 22, told AFP, referring to Trump's rival, Vice President Kamala Harris.

"He'll take it in a landslide," the delivery driver said, observing the thousands of fellow Trump supporters lining up to see the president speak in the Virginia city of Salem, nestled among gentle mountains brushed in red and orange by the fall foliage.

The Republican candidate has spent his 2024 campaign preemptively casting doubt on the integrity of Tuesday's upcoming vote, reprising the rhetoric surrounding his failed 2020 reelection bid -- which culminated in his supporters storming the US Capitol in a deadly riot to "stop the steal."

After three presidential runs and nearly a decade of Trump on the US political scene, his signature brand of skepticism or denial has thoroughly set in among swaths of conservative voters, across age, race and occupation.

"Kamala's going to be president, but I think Trump is going to win" the real vote count, said Jace Boda, an engineer at a nuclear facility.

"I suspect there's going to be a lot of fraud."

- From the trail to the courtroom -

While Trump has been quick to whip up fears of fraud on the campaign trail, the Republican National Committee and allied groups have also pressed such claims in courts, filing lawsuits targeting ballot-counting procedures, voting machines, voter registration, absentee ballots, the certification of results and a host of other issues.

While many of the suits have been dismissed, observers worry that they could further muddy the waters around what people believe about this year's vote, especially with Trump so insistently repeating his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

"I've been skeptical since the last election of the Democrats," said Olen, a rallygoer who, like many others, declined to share his last name with the media.

"Everything they've done is crooked," said the 70-year-old logger and farmer, wearing a shirt emblazoned with a picture of a bloodied Trump pumping his fist after the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, complete with the words "fight, fight, fight."

- Virginia 'not in play' -

Trump's choice to hold a rally in Virginia could also dovetail into his narrative of fraud.

Polling shows the state going for Harris, yet on the last weekend before Election Day, Trump headed down to Salem rather than making another stop in a must-win battleground state such as Pennsylvania or Michigan.

Last month, as Trump campaigned across the Democratic strongholds of Colorado, Illinois, California and New York, Adrienne Uthe, the founder of Utah-based PR firm Kronus Communications, told AFP that holding rallies in such states could help build his campaign's "narrative of a 'national movement.'"

Ahead of his Salem rally, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told AFP that "Virginia is not in play. It's an attempt by the Trump campaign to make their base believe Virginia is in play."

National polling has Trump and Harris neck-and-neck.

If the election is called in a landslide for Trump, however, Republican voters told AFP they'd be ready to throw their doubts aside.

Cherl, who works for a nonprofit, said she would be "skeptical" if the results show a Harris win, but "pretty confident" if they point to a Trump victory.

"God already has a plan made for Trump to be president," the 39-year-old said. "We're just waiting up to it."

T.Egger--VB