Volkswacht Bodensee - 2024 Nobel Peace Prize, a plea in favour of world order?

The climax of the Nobel season, the Peace Prize will be announced at 11:00 am (0900 GMT) at the Nobel Institute in Oslo.

The state of world affairs is decidedly bleak, with devastating wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, famine in Sudan and the ever-present climate catastrophe.

According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, there were 59 armed conflicts in the world in 2023, which is almost double the number in 2009.

Some experts see that as a reason to not award a Nobel Peace Prize this year -- as has happened 19 times since it was first awarded in 1901.

But the Norwegian Nobel Committee has insisted that on the contrary, rewarding peace efforts is "perhaps more important than ever".

"It's hard to be an optimist when you look around in the world today, and forces of peace do not seem to be on the offensive," the secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Olav Njolstad, told AFP.

"But... there are definitely people and organisations who are doing a great job," he added.

- Trump and Musk -

According to Nobel watchers, the five members of the prize committee could seize the opportunity to highlight the importance of respecting world order.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA or UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres could be given the nod for their work amid Russia's war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Islamist group Hamas.

The ICJ has -- albeit in vain -- ordered Moscow to immediately end its offensive and Israel to halt its military operations in Gaza.

UNRWA, which has been harshly criticised by Israeli authorities, has come to the aid of millions of Palestinians, while Guterres has, among other things, repeatedly called for ceasefires.

The International Criminal Court, the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the Emergency Response Rooms initiative in Sudan and Afghan women's rights activist Mahbouba Seraj have all been singled out by experts as possible winners this year.

In all, 286 candidates -- 197 individuals and 89 organisations -- are known to have been nominated this year.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee keeps the candidates' names secret for 50 years, but those eligible to nominate can reveal who they have proposed.

Former US president Donald Trump, billionaire Elon Musk, Pope Francis, ex-NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Australian WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, British environmentalist David Attenborough and Reporters without Borders are all known to have been nominated.

- A men's year, again -

The Peace Prize is the only Nobel awarded in Oslo, with the other disciplines announced in Stockholm.

Last year, the Peace Prize went to jailed Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran.

This year's Nobel season has so far been a predominantly male, Anglo-Saxon affair, with seven North Americans or Britons honoured, including with two prizes celebrating artificial intelligence (AI).

On Monday, the medicine prize went to US duo Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun for their discovery of microRNA, a previously unknown type of genetic switch that could pave the way for new medical breakthroughs.

Tuesday's physics prize honoured Canadian-Briton Geoffrey Hinton and American physicist John Hopfield for pioneering work on the foundations of AI.

The chemistry prize on Wednesday was awarded to David Baker and John Jumper of the US, and Demis Hassabis of Britain, for work revealing the secrets of proteins through computing and AI.

The only woman and non-Western laureate so far this year has been South Korea's Han Kang, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday.

The economics prize will wrap up the Nobel season on Monday.

The Nobel Prizes consist of a diploma, a gold medal and a $1 million prize sum. They will be presented at ceremonies in Stockholm and Oslo on December 10, the anniversary of the 1896 death of scientist and prize creator Alfred Nobel.

H.Gerber--VB