Volkswacht Bodensee - Scholz's party narrowly leads far-right AfD in east German state vote: exit polls

Scholz's centre-left SPD won 31 to 32 percent of the vote, a slight lead over the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, which scored 29 to 30 percent according to exit polls by the two main public broadcasters.

If confirmed, the result would offer a rare moment of respite for Scholz's embattled coalition government that has taken a dive in opinion polls a year ahead of national elections.

The polls in Brandenburg state have been closely watched because Scholz's SPD has ruled there ever since Germany's 1990 reunification and because the chancellor's electoral district is in the state capital Potsdam, outside Berlin.

The AfD, which rails against asylum-seekers, multiculturalism, Islam and Scholz's government, had hoped to replicate its recent electoral success in the east.

Three weeks ago, it stunned the political establishment by taking first place in a parliamentary vote, for the first time ever, in the eastern state of Thuringia and coming a close second in neighbouring Saxony.

Despite its ballot box success, the AfD is unlikely to take power in any state since all other mainstream parties have so far ruled out entering into a governing alliance with the party.

Brandenburg's popular SPD state premier Dietmar Woidke had kept his distance during the campaign from his party colleague Scholz.

In office for more than a decade, Woidke had also thrown down a challenge to voters, by telling them he would quit if the AfD wins.

- Fear of attacks -

The decade-old AfD, originally a eurosceptic party, has long stoked public fears about irregular migration, especially after a string of recent attacks with suspected Islamist motives.

Germany was shocked by a knife rampage that killed three people and wounded eight in Solingen last month. Police arrested a Syrian asylum-seeker who allegedly claimed allegiance to the Islamic State group and had evaded a deportation order.

The AfD's populist rhetoric and appeal with many young voters have heaped political pressure on Scholz and his governing allies, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, whose vote figures were in the low single digits in Sunday's state election.

Infighting in the government has seen Scholz's approval ratings plummet while his defence minister, fellow Social Democrat Boris Pistorius, often tops surveys as Germany's most popular politician.

In the long run-up to national elections in September 2025, the opposition conservatives of the CDU-CSU alliance last week selected their party leader Friedrich Merz as their top candidate.

- Leftist kingmaker? -

Around 2.1 million people aged over 16 were eligible to vote in Brandenburg.

The state includes wealthy towns such as Potsdam as well as thinly populated rural areas and industrial zones, one of which houses a Tesla plant.

A recent survey in Brandenburg found that immigration was the top concern for many voters.

This year has also seen the emergence of a second populist party, the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which won around 12 percent in Brandenburg according to exit polls.

Hailing from former East Germany, Wagenknecht is a veteran opposition politician and frequent TV talk show guest who quit the hard-left Die Linke party to form her own movement.

After scoring well in three eastern state elections, Wagenknecht's party could gain a potential kingmaker role, complicating the task for the other parties who oppose her pro-Russia and anti-NATO stance.

S.Spengler--VB