Volkswacht Bodensee - Conservatives lead in Bulgaria's sixth vote in three years: exit polls

Borisov's GERB party won between 26 and 28 percent of the vote, surging ahead of reformist grouping PP-DB.

The latter slumped to around 15 percent in the EU's poorest member, according to the polls.

But GERB is likely to continue to struggle to find partners to govern after massive anti-corruption protests in 2020 ended Borisov's almost decade-long rule.

Analysts see high chances for the country's worst political instability since the end of communism to endure, saying another snap election is possible later this year.

This threatens to further delay reforms necessary to unlock EU funding and integrate the country fully into the Schengen area of free movement -- and to frustrate voters further.

"We are weary of elections, and we want some stability and some prosperity for the country," said Margarita Semerdzhieva, a 72-year-old pensioner, echoing the comments of others who spoke to AFP outside a Sofia polling station.

- Record low voter turnout -

Sunday's turnout was the lowest for a Bulgarian national election since the end of communism, at around 30 percent, according to data published by polling agencies shortly before voting closed.

The vote was being held alongside EU elections, where similar results are anticipated with reformists having lost significant ground.

"I voted so that Bulgaria will return to stability, and that its voice is heard," Borisov, 64, said after casting his ballot.

The former firefighter and bodyguard has long sought to portray an image of a "strong leader", which 49 percent of Bulgarians who were questioned in a recent study by the Open Society Institute said they prefer.

Some voters were expected to punish the liberal reformist PP-DB for agreeing to work with GERB to form the previous government after having accused Borisov's past administrations of corruption.

The two former rivals agreed to govern on a common pro-EU platform of ensuring Bulgaria -- traditionally close to Russia -- supports Ukraine's fight against Moscow's invasion.

But the fragile partnership tumbled in April following just nine months in power after the parties failed to agree on key judiciary and other reforms.

"Bulgaria is at a crossroads," PP co-president Kiril Petkov, who himself governed Bulgaria from late 2021 to 2022, said after casting his ballot.

He warned of forces influencing the country "from the shadows" to derail any reform drive.

- Russian disinformation -

A partner for GERB could be the Turkish minority MRF party led by Delyan Peevski, a 43-year-old lawmaker and former businessman who is sanctioned by the United States and Britain for corruption.

His party won around 15 percent, according to the exit polls.

"People today vote for a new beginning. It is time for us to form a stable government," Peevski said in a video distributed by his party earlier Sunday.

But analysts warn having the party formally in the cabinet risks provoking protests and could tarnish the country's image.

On the other hand, a tacit behind-the-scenes partnership between GERB and MRF already dates back years, according to analysts.

Pro-Russian nationalists Vazrazhdane gained between 12 and 14 percent of the vote, according to the exit polls, with research indicating that Russian propaganda and disinformation played a large part in the vote.

A survey by the Sofia-based think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy found that close to 40 percent of Bulgarians share disinformation and almost 70 percent believe in conspiracy narratives.

G.Haefliger--VB