Volkswacht Bodensee - US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 23-year high

At the end of a two-day meeting, the central bank decided unanimously to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 percent, citing a "lack of further progress" towards its two percent inflation target.

"The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks," said the Fed in a statement.

For months, the US central bank has held its benchmark lending rate at a high level to cool demand and rein in price increases -- with a slowdown in inflation last year fueling optimism that the first cuts were on the horizon.

But inflation has accelerated, throwing cold water on hopes of an early rate cut this year.

The central bank said it does not expect to cut rates until it has "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably towards its two percent target.

Policymakers would also be prepared to adjust their stance "if risks emerge that could impede the attainment" of the Fed's goals.

All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference later Wednesday.

- 'Uncertainty' -

Just a few weeks ago, financial markets expected the central bank to begin rate cuts in June.

But the most recent inflation reports had "definitively pushed the lift-off date substantially into the future," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America.

"The September meeting now seems like the most likely time for the first cut," he added.

According to CME Group data released earlier Wednesday, traders do not see a significant chance of rates coming down until around September.

Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said that "given the incoming data on inflation, risks are weighted toward fewer cuts this year."

The Fed's dependence on incoming data also raises "uncertainty in the forecast for the path of monetary policy," Sweet added in a recent note.

Analysts will be scrutinizing Powell's comments on progress in lowering inflation, and his response on whether the Fed might look into raising rates again -- although observers expect the bar would be set very high for such a move.

As hope dwindles for rate cuts in the first half of this year, the Fed also faces a growing possibility that eventual reductions will coincide with the run-up to November's presidential election.

This could give the economy a boost while Democrats and Republicans vie to win over voters. The converging timeline may prove uncomfortable because the Fed, as the independent US central bank, seeks to avoid any appearance of politicization.

- Balance sheet -

On Wednesday the central bank also announced that starting June, it would slow the pace of reduction of its securities holdings by "reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion."

The Fed embarked on a policy of so-called quantitative easing during the Covid-19 pandemic, swelling its balance sheet to support the economy through economic turmoil unleashed by the virus.

Since rolling back the policy in 2022, the Fed has steadily reduced its holdings.

In recent months, analysts have been attempting to predict when it would begin slowing down the reduction in the size of its balance sheet.

The bank has been allowing up to $95 billion in assets to mature each month without being replaced.

The ongoing measure reduces the overall size of the Fed's balance sheet and is also meant to tighten monetary policy.

It currently holds about $7.4 trillion in assets.

M.Betschart--VB