Volkswacht Bodensee - China emissions fell in Q2 as Iran war pared oil use: analysis

Emissions from the gigantic East Asian economy have fallen before, but the April-June period was the first time such a drop was driven by lower oil consumption, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) analysis published by Carbon Brief.

CO2 emissions were down one percent in the second quarter, it said, with oil use falling nine percent overall and 16 percent for transport, based on assessments of Chinese government data.

The situation "has very clearly validated China's energy security strategy and especially the role of electrification as a part of that strategy", CREA co-founder and lead analyst Lauri Myllyvyrta told AFP.

Severe disruption to traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has heavily impacted shipments of oil to China, the world's second-largest economy and the top importer of crude.

Now, more than six months into the US-Iran war, China has weathered the complications more smoothly than many experts initially anticipated.

Myllyvirta told AFP that the crisis has accelerated adoption of electric fleets in China across traditionally gas-guzzling industries including construction and mining.

"These kinds of changes are highly likely to prove sticky," he said.

Previous drops in China's emissions have been driven primarily by lower coal consumption, rather than oil, according to the CREA.

China is the world's biggest emitter, responsible for over 30 percent of global greenhouse gases.

Its leaders have promised to step up efforts to reduce CO2 and boost the green transition, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060.

While emissions fell in the second quarter, they rose two percent in the first, according to the CREA data, leaving levels "up marginally across the first half of the year".

Earlier this week, Chinese authorities said that the country's installed solar energy capacity had surpassed that of coal-fired power for the first time.

China has seen explosive growth in renewable installation, with coal's share in its energy mix edging down in recent years.

L.Wyss--VB