Volkswacht Bodensee - Turkey's central bank lifts 2026 inflation forecasts

The official inflation rate is now seen falling to between 15 and 21 percent by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of 13 to 19 percent.

"We have increased our forecast range because of better visibility on certain risks," the central bank's governor Fatih Karahan said in a statement, without further detail.

The forecast would still be a sharp decline from the annual inflation rate of 30.7 percent in January, following years of interest rate hikes in a bid to slow runaway price increases.

However, the official figures are disputed by ENAG, a group of independent economists that publishes its own data every month, with the organisation saying year-on-year inflation stood at 53.4 percent in January.

Turkey has experienced double-digit inflation since 2019, making life increasingly more expensive for millions of people, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered interest rate cuts in a bid to spur growth.

The cuts sent the lira plunging on currency markets, further fuelling inflation and leading Erdogan to reverse his unorthodox policy in 2023.

But in January the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 37 percent, citing a continued slowing of price increases.

L.Meier--VB