Volkswacht Bodensee - 'No winner': Kosovo snap poll unlikely to end damaging deadlock

The Balkan nation has been politically deadlocked since the inconclusive vote in February, which outgoing premier Albin Kurti's Vetevendosje (VV) party won but without enough seats to form a government.

After months of wrangling in a stalled parliament, the caretaker prime minister is going back to the electorate in a vote that analysts say will change very little.

"I think that the December 28 elections will not bring any clarity," economist Mehmet Gjata told AFP as he predicted Kurti's party would come out on top again.

Political analyst Fatime Hajdari agreed that "chances were high" that VV would secure the most votes, but said little else was clear.

- Charismatic Kurti -

If anyone can secure a majority, Kurti, once dubbed Kosovo's Che Guevara for his radical past, has a rare record.

His party swept to power in 2021 in the largest electoral victory since the country's independence from Serbia in 2008, taking over 50 percent of the vote.

From a student radical to a political prisoner, Kurti's long path to the prime ministership has made him one of the most recognisable and influential politicians in Kosovo.

His blend of nationalism and a reform agenda has proven popular in a country whose sovereignty is still contested by Serbia, more than two decades after its war for independence ended.

But Gjata says things may have changed since Kurti's last term.

"I'm afraid that the current political crisis will repeat itself, because VV will not get more than 50 percent of the votes," the economist said.

"We will have no winner again."

The largest opposition parties have refused to join a Kurti coalition, all but assuring a fragmented parliament.

The only realistic challenge to VV would be "cooperation" between the three major opposition parties, former foreign minister and opposition candidate Enver Hoxhaj said.

"I think that only they can offer stability," Hoxhaj said.

- Popular Serb policy blamed for 'instability' -

For Kurti and his party, countering Serbian influence in Kosovo has long been a focus, drawing support at home but criticism abroad.

When Serbian forces withdrew under NATO bombardment in 1999, it left many of its state structures in place for ethnic Serbs who live mainly in the north.

Kurti has labelled these services "instruments of intimidation, threat and control" and spent nearly his entire second term uprooting the system -- and angering Belgrade in the process.

The resulting tensions in the north, which last flared into violence in 2023, have drawn sanctions from the European Union and caused Washington to accuse Kurti's government of increasing "instability".

But among his voters, the removal of Serbian influence remains popular, Hajdari said.

"The extension of sovereignty there is perceived by the citizens as a major success," Hajdari said.

Most opposition parties avoid the issue, but the Serb List -- which contests and retains most of the ten reserved Serb seats in parliament -- regularly clashes with Kurti's agenda in the north.

The minor party, with close ties to Belgrade, has previously called the government's moves in the north "ethnic cleansing" and has said they are willing to work with other parties to keep Kurti out of power.

- A year of 'colossal damage' -

Without a parliament, key international agreements have not been ratified, putting hundreds of millions of euros in assistance funds at risk.

Two national polls and a local election have cost one of Europe's poorest nations at least 30 million euros ($35 million) this year.

Over a dozen government institutions and agencies have also been left leaderless, as the mandates of their managers expired without new ones being appointed.

Gjata said "colossal damage" had been done to the economy by divided lawmakers over the past months.

"They have put Kosovo in a state of anarchy," he said.

While lawmakers bickered, the cost of the crisis would be felt by the Balkan nation's citizens, Hajdari warned.

"That is precisely why Kosovo needs a stable and functional government that would focus on development and welfare."

R.Kloeti--VB