Volkswacht Bodensee - China's snaps 4-month consumer decline but factory price deflation deepens

Chinese officials have been trying to revive sluggish domestic spending since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, with the government's official growth target at risk.

That comes just as leaders face heightened turmoil sparked by US President Donald Trump's trade war.

The consumer price index -- a key measure of inflation -- edged up 0.1 percent on-year last month, according to data published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The reading beat the 0.1 percent drop forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists and was an improvement on the 0.1 percent fall seen in May.

The flip into positive territory was "mainly due to the rebound in prices of industrial consumer goods", NBS statistician Dong Lijuan said in a statement.

Dong noted that "policies of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continued to be effective".

Beijing has set its official growth target this year at around five percent, although many economists consider that goal to be ambitious because domestic spending remains sluggish.

The government has introduced a series of aggressive moves since last year in an attempt to get people spending, including key rate cuts, abolishing some restrictions on homebuying and a consumer goods trade-in scheme.

In a signal of further deflationary pressure, Chinese factory gate prices fell in June at the fastest rate in nearly two years, the NBS also said on Wednesday.

The producer price index declined 3.6 percent year-on-year, accelerating from a 3.3 percent drop in May, and faster than the 3.2 percent decline estimated in the Bloomberg survey.

"I think it is too early to call the end of deflation at this stage," Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote in a note.

China's once-booming real estate market has been mired in a crisis for years, stalling many large construction projects and spooking would-be homebuyers.

"The momentum in the property sector is still weakening," Zhang said.

The slump in the property market -- long a key driver of growth -- gives China's exports a more prominent role in boosting economic activity.

However, the outlook for Chinese exports has also darkened with fierce headwinds on trade this year.

Trump revealed new tariff rates for many countries this week, with many at levels similar to those announced -- and later paused -- in April.

Zhang said "the market is too complacent about the damage of such high tariffs on both the US and the global economy".

T.Ziegler--VB