Volkswacht Bodensee - 'Unfinished business': Opponents anxious, bitter after Iran ceasefire

With Iranian officials hailing the last-minute ceasefire as a triumph for the system that took power in the 1979 Islamic revolution, rights groups now fear emboldened authorities will launch a mass new domestic crackdown.

"This feels like unfinished business. I think eventually it's going to be war again," said a Tehran resident, 40, a broker on the Iranian stock exchange, asking not to be named for fear of reprisals.

"Ending in a situation where the Islamic republic feels victorious isn't really a good thing," he told AFP in Paris from Tehran.

"They have more self esteem. They kill more people. They keep the internet shut down. Everything is going to be way worse."

Simin, 48, a teacher in Tehran, expressed relief over the ceasefire after being "terrified to our core" over the last five weeks.

But she said: "At the same time, the continuation of the Islamic republic is just as frightening."

"I am happy for a few seconds thinking about relief from bombs but I am afraid of news of executions that is no easier than the bombs to deal with."

Armin, 34, said that if the war ended and the Islamic republic remained "there is no benefit for the people".

"The Islamic republic will make the people pay for all the losses they sustained during the war," he said.

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war along with an echelon of top officials.

But key figures have survived, Khamenei was replaced by his son, while Iran's war machine kept fighting.

Even during the conflict, the Islamic republic kept up executions which rights activists see as a tool of repression aimed at instilling fear in society.

- 'Witch hunt' -

Since the war began on February 28, Iran has hanged seven people in connection with January protests, six convicted of membership of banned opposition group the People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK) and a dual Iranian-Swedish citizen on charges of spying for Israel.

Two of those hanged in connection with the protests were teenagers aged 18 and 19. Hundreds of people have also been arrested, with many subjected to what rights groups term forced confessions on TV.

Severe wartime internet restrictions have now lasted 40 days according to monitor Netblocks which says Iranians have suffered a "near-total disconnection from the outside world".

"The regime has shown us that repression is the only weapon it has against its people," Raphael Chenuil-Hazan, executive director of Paris-based NGO Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM), told AFP.

"The death penalty is their instrument of fear... We deeply fear a witch hunt," he said, warning that posting a photo on social media "can turn an ordinary citizen into a 'spy' who is liable for the death penalty".

During mass anti-government protests in January, Trump had promised to send help and had demanded action on human rights and in particular an end to executions.

But the ceasefire deal does not address any prospects for changing the theocratic system set up after the Islamic revolution.

"People in Iran have increasingly realised that this was never a war about them or their rights," said Mahmood-Amiry Moghaddam, director of Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR).

"The escalation of repression and executions will continue regardless of war, because the authorities see their own people as the main threat," he told AFP.

- 'Going to be worse' -

Exiled political groups have also expressed disappointment.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted shah, has yet to comment but his aide Saeed Ghasseminejad, who had been leading a process to find members of a transitional body, wrote on X that the "ceasefire is unnecessary and harmful to US national interests".

Maryam Rajavi, leader of the MEK, said in a statement she welcomed the ceasefire but warned a "lasting peace... can only be achieved through the overthrow of the terrorist and warmongering dictatorship".

Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, said while authorities were claiming victory the country was weaker economically "and it is a matter of when, not if, popular protests resume".

Protests initially sparked by economic grievances peaked on January 8-9 when people poured into the streets nationwide to denounce the Islamic republic but were met by a crackdown that according to rights groups left thousands of people dead.

"The regime will repress them as brutally as ever," Juneau said, adding that "the domestic crackdown will be brutal" and authorities will also seek to target dissidents abroad.

The Tehran resident who works on the stock exchange said: "They (the United States and Israel) hit nuclear and missile sites and bought some time for themselves. But in reality nothing changed for the people in Iran."

F.Stadler--VB